UK Business Travel and the Jet Fuel Crisis: A clear-eyed briefing and what travel managers need to know

We’re reporting the situation as reported on 21 May 2026. The Middle East conflict and its impact on aviation remain fast-moving. We are monitoring developments daily and will publish updates as the picture changes.

The quick facts:

Jet fuel prices have fallen sharply from their peak and appear to be stabilising.

That’s a genuine improvement. But costs are still 80% higher than this time last year, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic, and the ceasefire between the US and Iran is fragile. The improvement is real. It is not guaranteed to hold.

UK flights are largely running normally

However, cancellations are creeping up, and all direct routes to the Gulf region are suspended until at least August. If your people travel to Dubai, Doha or Riyadh, you need alternative plans in place now.

There is no fuel shortage for UK airlines.

The Government, Airlines UK and the major carriers have all confirmed this. The contingency measures you may have read about are precautionary, not a sign that something is about to go wrong.

Fares will rise later this year.

Airlines bought much of their fuel in advance at pre-crisis prices. That protection runs out through the summer. When it does, the cost gets passed on. Booking trips now, before that happens, will save money.

What should travel managers do right now?

The situation around UK aviation, jet fuel and the Middle East conflict is moving fast. Some of what you’ve read in the press this week is accurate. Some of it requires unpacking. And some of the most important intelligence, specifically what’s happening to fuel prices and what it means for your fares in the second half of the year, isn’t getting reported at all. So, for Travel Manager’s trying to navigate a fast moving situation we’ve listed out the right actions to take this week, in order of priority.

Book now and treat today’s fares as the floor.

Airline hedging cover thins materially through Q3 and Q4. Every week of delay pushes bookings into the period where airlines are buying more fuel at spot rates still 80% above last year. The Business Travel Association is direct: on transatlantic and Asia-Pacific long-haul, current fares should be the baseline for H2 budgeting, not the expectation. If you’re renewing corporate agreements, do it now while carriers still have hedging buffers.

Remove Middle East routing from active programmes.

BA has confirmed suspensions until end of July. Itineraries routing through Dubai, Doha or Abu Dhabi need alternative solutions. This is an operational change, not a temporary inconvenience, and should be reflected in your travel policy now.

Check insurance cover.

Any itineraries with Middle East routing should be reviewed against conflict-related clauses in your travel insurance policy. Cover for cancellations in conflict zones is not automatic. This is a standard step in periods of geopolitical uncertainty and should form part of your internal communications to travellers.

Watch Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines connections.

If your programme uses connecting flights through Frankfurt, Munich or Istanbul, monitor those legs closely. Short-haul consolidations are possible and manageable with advance notice.

Communicate the real picture internally.

The Business Travel Association is clear: UK business travel beyond the Middle East is operating normally. The 0.75% cancellation rate for UK services does not justify programme-level alarm. Travel managers are in the best position to give their organisations a grounded picture. Use the data in this piece to do that.

What to tell those who arrange or authorises travel?

• Jet fuel prices have fallen 13.7% in the past month and appear to be stabilising, though they remain 80% above last year’s levels.
• UK airline cancellations are rising but remain at 0.75% of services. Middle East routes are suspended until at least the end of July. The broader business travel network is intact.
• UK carriers are not experiencing fuel supply disruptions. The Government is monitoring daily and has confirmed no immediate supply issues. Contingency legislation is in place but has not been activated.
• Fares will rise in H2 2026 as airline hedging cover thins. Approving bookings now is the commercially sound decision.

The full picture: what the data shows

What is happening with jet fuel prices right now?

This is the part the headlines are missing. And it matters.

In late March, the Strait of Hormuz closure caused jet fuel prices to spike sharply. That spike is now unwinding. The Business Travel Association, drawing on IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor data, confirms prices have fallen 13.7% over the past month and appear to be stabilising around the $160 to $165 per barrel range, down from a peak above $210 in late March.

But it needs context. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial shipping. The UK Parliamentary Research Service and US Congressional Research Service both confirm that, as of mid-May, Iran retains de facto control over the waterway and transit volumes remain well below pre-conflict levels. The ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran on 8 April is holding in parts but described by US officials as on “life support,” with intermittent incidents continuing since 4 May. The price improvement has come from alternative supply routes, from the US, India and the Netherlands, beginning to compensate for the lost Gulf supply, not from the underlying problem being resolved.

Jet fuel still costs 80% more than it did a year ago, according to the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor, and anyone suggesting the crisis is resolved isn’t reading the full picture.

What is the current UK flight cancellation rate?

The cancellation picture is more disrupted than many headlines suggest. Around 1 in 133 UK scheduled departures have been cancelled so far this month, equivalent to 0.75% of all scheduled UK services, according to Cirium aviation analytics data published 13 May 2026. The rate is rising, and travel managers should be aware of that.

This morning, British Airways confirmed a significant extension to its suspensions. Reporting published today by Head for Points confirms all direct BA flights to Amman, Bahrain, Doha, Dubai, Riyadh and Tel Aviv are now suspended until the end of July, with Dubai resuming a limited one-flight-per-day service from 1 August.

If your people travel to the Gulf region for business, those routes are not available until August at the earliest. That needs to be in your travel policy today, not next week.

Beyond the Middle East, the picture is much calmer. Cirium’s forward schedule data shows only marginal summer reductions. The broad business travel network, covering Europe, transatlantic routes, Asia and domestic UK, is intact and operating.

Do UK airlines have a fuel supply problem?

No. The Business Travel Association is clear: UK carriers are not experiencing jet fuel supply disruptions. Airlines UK CEO Tim Alderslade confirmed this position publicly, stating that UK airlines continue to operate normally.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander confirmed to Parliament that the Government has been monitoring jet fuel supplies daily since the Strait of Hormuz closure, working with airlines, airports and fuel suppliers. Her stated position: there are no immediate supply issues. The UK Government has not activated emergency fuel measures.

The Government has consulted on legislation allowing airlines to consolidate services without losing slot entitlements, described by Alexander as designed to “avoid unnecessary disruption at the departure gate this summer”. Airport Coordination Limited has updated its guidance accordingly.

The supply picture is stable. The cost picture is the real story.

What is actually happening with airline fares?

Here’s what isn’t making the news. And it’s what matters most for your programme right now.

Most UK airlines have not publicly announced fuel surcharges. Instead, they’ve quietly absorbed the cost increase and let fares on long-haul routes, particularly transatlantic and Asia-Pacific, drift upward against what you’d have paid in 2025. The Business Travel Association reports that TMC members are already seeing premium cabin pricing on long-haul routes increase materially compared to 2025 booking periods. The price increase is real. It just hasn’t come with a press release.

The reason fares haven’t risen more sharply yet is that most airlines bought a large proportion of their fuel in advance at pre-crisis prices. They’re currently selling seats at prices that don’t yet fully reflect today’s fuel costs.

According to hedging positions compiled by the Business Travel Association, British Airways had 75% of its fuel needs locked in at the start of 2026. By Q4, that falls to 50%. easyJet’s CEO has stated that fares will “feed through to consumers towards the back end of the year” as contracts expire, with every $100 per barrel movement adding approximately £40m to its costs. Today’s fares are almost certainly lower than September’s. Booking now locks in today’s price.

Why are business routes still protected?

When airlines need to cut flights, they don’t cut randomly. They protect the routes that matter most to their revenue first.

Business travel routes, think London to New York, London to Frankfurt, key UK domestic connections, are among the most profitable routes airlines operate. When they need to reduce capacity, they start with the routes where demand is thinner and margins are lower, not the ones corporate travellers depend on. The Business Travel Association confirms that consolidation activity to date has been concentrated on high-frequency leisure routes with multiple daily services, where passengers can be moved between departures without meaningful disruption.

Your business travel routes are the last ones airlines will touch. That’s not reassurance. It’s the commercial reality of how airlines make decisions.

Frequently asked questions

Are UK flights being cancelled because of the Middle East conflict?

UK cancellations stand at 0.75% of scheduled services in May, according to Cirium data from 13 May 2026. British Airways has suspended all Middle East routes until the end of July. The broader UK business travel network beyond the Middle East is operating normally.

Is there a jet fuel shortage affecting UK airlines?

No. Airlines UK CEO Tim Alderslade confirmed this week that UK carriers are not experiencing jet fuel supply problems. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander has confirmed there are no immediate supply issues. The UK Government has not activated emergency fuel measures.

Will business travel fares go up?

They are likely to rise in H2 2026. Airline hedging cover thins materially in Q3 and Q4 as contracts placed at pre-crisis prices expire. Carriers will then be buying a larger proportion of fuel at spot rates that remain 80% above year-ago levels. Booking now, while hedging buffers hold, is the practical response.

Should businesses pause their travel programmes?

No, except for Middle East routing. The evidence does not support a programme-level pause. Removing Middle East itineraries from active planning is appropriate. Continuing to book on UK carriers for all other destinations is the right call.

What has the UK Government done to protect passengers?

The Government has monitored jet fuel supplies daily since the Strait of Hormuz closure and introduced legislation allowing airlines to consolidate services in advance without losing airport slots. This protects passengers from last-minute cancellations. Airport Coordination Limited has confirmed airlines won’t lose slot entitlements if fuel shortages prevent flying.

Which airlines are most affected right now?

British Airways has suspended all Middle East routes until end of July. Lufthansa cancelled 20,000 short-haul flights in response to its relatively weaker fuel hedging position. Turkish Airlines hubs face pressure given Istanbul’s proximity to the region. easyJet, Ryanair and UK domestic carriers are operating normally on all other routes.

What this moment asks of a travel programme

A well-run programme doesn’t wait for a CEO to forward a news article before acting. It already has the data, the relationships and the oversight in place to give business leaders a clear answer before they have to ask.

Travel is a system of decisions. In moments like this, the quality of those decisions is what separates programmes that hold from ones that react.

Your people need to travel. The core routes are open. Book the trip.

This piece reflects data and reporting available on 21 May 2026. We are monitoring the situation daily and will publish updates as anything material changes. If you want to understand how your specific routes are positioned right now, or need help briefing your leadership team, get in touch.

All sources cited inline throughout this article. Primary sources: Business Travel Association (thebta.org.uk); IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor; S&P Global Energy Platts; Cirium aviation analytics, 13 May 2026; Head for Points, 21 May 2026; Airlines UK CEO Tim Alderslade, May 2026; Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander, Department for Transport, May 2026; Airport Coordination Limited, May 2026; UK Parliamentary Research Service, CBP-10636; US Congressional Research Service, IN12678, May 2026; IAG spokesperson; easyJet CEO statement, 23 April 2026; Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary, May 2026.

Talk to our travel team about your travel programme. If the current situation has raised questions about your routes, your policy or your programme structure, we can help.